In 2018, the real estate market regulation and control policies were overweighted. The central government continued to adhere to the general tone of “staying and not speculating” and expanding the “four limits” at the local level. In the third quarter, the urban market has further diversified, and the phenomenon of land flow has also increased. The intention of companies to push back the funds and prudently invest has become more apparent. According to industry analysts, the probability of deep consolidation in the real estate market in the fourth quarter has further increased.
Residential sales market continues to fatigue
In the first three quarters of this year, the real estate market in key cities was generally sluggish, and the “Golden September and Silver 10” overall was eclipsed. Recently, the data released by the Yiju Real Estate Research Institute showed that in September 2018, the volume of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities monitored was 43.79 million square meters, a decrease of 4.2% from the previous month.
In September of this year, many housing companies had the willingness to catch up with the annual performance. The local government also accelerated the pace of the issuance of pre-sale certificates, which made the new supply active. In September, the newly approved pre-sale area of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities was 56.08 million square meters, an increase of 25.7% from the previous month and an increase of 22.2%. According to comprehensive historical data, the pace of housing sales in September was significantly accelerated, the second highest level in history. Among them, the newly approved pre-sale area in April 2016 was 56.12 million square meters, the highest level in history.
However, in the comprehensive supply and demand market data, the market trend in September was weaker than expected, and the "Golden Nine" was insufficient. In September 2018, the supply of new commercial housing in 100 cities was 56.08 million square meters, while the transaction volume was 43.79 million square meters.
According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Research Center of Yiju Research Institute, “On the basis of the situation of less than demand in the past nine months, the supply oversupply situation first appeared in September. And comparing the historical data, the contradiction of oversupply in September It is the sharpest. Housing companies are facing more pressure to go to stocks, which in turn forces the housing companies to actively cut prices."
He further pointed out that in September this year, the inventory-to-sales ratio of newly-built commercial housing in 100 cities monitored was 9.2 months, which means that it takes 9.2 months for the market to digest these stocks. The nine months in August rebounded. “A similar rebound may also indicate that the ratio of deposits and sales is beginning to go out of historical lows, that is, a slight rebound at the historical low level of nine months.”
From the point of view of sales prices, due to the continued deepening of the policy, buyers are expected to show signs of change, and the market is gradually adjusting. According to data from the China Index Academy, the price increase of new homes in Baicheng continued to narrow in the first three quarters. From January to September, the cumulative increase was 4.05%, which was 1.85 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year. The number of cities with falling house prices in September increased significantly, and the prices of second-hand houses in some cities showed significant adjustment.
National land transaction heat has dropped sharply
Affected by the downturn in the residential sales market, the land market has continued to decline this year. The price increases in first- and second-tier hotspot cities have narrowed, and the premium rate has been low. The phenomenon of land flow and reserve price has generally increased.
According to the monitoring data of the same policy institute, as of September 30 this year, there were 3,674 construction land in 300 cities nationwide, a decrease of 2,391 cases compared with August, and a decrease of 2,347 cases compared with the same period of last year; the turnover reached 359.143 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.15%. %, a year-on-year decrease of 33.60%; turnover of 24,379,500 square meters, down 26.10%, down 27.91%; average transaction floor price of 1473.16 yuan / square meter, down 2.77%, down 7.89%.
Not only that, from the perspective of urban energy level, the transaction area and amount of each city in the country have a certain degree of decline, and the transaction floor price has also declined. Analysts from the same policy institute pointed out that “the enthusiasm for land acquisition in various cities in the month has fallen sharply. In particular, the volume of residential land in the first-tier cities has fallen, while the volume of commercial land has increased substantially, but they are far less than the same period last year. ."
According to specific data, from the perspective of the transaction volume of the land market, the turnover in September was 3.5722 million square meters, a slight decrease of 1.43% from the previous month and a decrease of 63.90% from the same period last year. The transaction area of residential and commercial land fell by 20.46% and 72.51% respectively, down 39.66% and 72.11% respectively compared with the same period of last year.
With the deepening of the regulation of the real estate market, listed real estate enterprises are accelerating in the performance scale competition. At the same time, the scale and structure of the land bank of the housing enterprises have an increasing impact on performance. However, since the beginning of this year, the overall storage and storage activities of large-scale housing enterprises in the land market have slowed down.
Judging from the amount of land sales by typical real estate enterprises in the land market, the concentration of land transactions in the top 20 listed real estate enterprises in September fell significantly year-on-year, much lower than the same period last year. In the month, the land transaction value of 20 housing enterprises was 70.726 billion yuan, down 49.23% from the previous month and down 69.79% year-on-year. Judging from the transaction area, the construction area of 20 real estate enterprises in the month was 22,296,900 square meters, down 39.92% and 46.79% from the previous year.
According to the cumulative transaction volume from January to September, the total turnover of 20 real estate enterprises in January-September was 1,180.53 billion yuan, accounting for 28.54% of the land transaction value of 300 cities nationwide, accounting for 15.47 percentage points lower than the same period of last year. Seen, the total turnover of 20 housing enterprises was 30,785,710 square meters, accounting for 10.80% of the land construction and construction of 300 cities nationwide, accounting for a decrease of 3.54 percentage points year-on-year.
The relevant person in charge of the Central Reference Hospital pointed out that since this year, land price limit, price limit, competition, competition, construction, and land ownership have become important requirements for hotspot cities. For enterprises, these restrictions impose certain pressure on project profitability and turnover, and put forward higher requirements for corporate financial strength.
In this context, in the first three quarters of this year, a total of 449 residential plots were collected in 300 cities across the country, with a total planned construction area of 56.66 million square meters, which is about 1.8 times the total planned construction area of the auctioned plots in 2017. The proportion of total launch area peaked in the third quarter. According to the analysis of the person in charge of the above-mentioned Chinese Academy of Hospitals, “At the same time, the number of land parcels sold at the reserve price has increased significantly, and the land market has cooled significantly, further strengthening the expected transformation of the real estate market.”
Housing enterprises make room for profit further
In the first half of this year, under the general tone of the market of “resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices”, the regulatory policies continued to increase, and the restrictions on price policies made the housing concessions very limited. With the arrival of the “Golden September and Silver 10” promotion season, some housing companies have taken the lead in opening the nationwide price reduction promotion since the end of August.
In the past two months, in the context of the cooling of market transactions, in order to alleviate the pressure of de-chemicalization, more and more projects have been discounted and even reduced prices. According to the statistics of the Cree Real Estate Research Center, large and medium-sized housing enterprises such as Evergrande, Country Garden, R&F, Poly, Sunac and Zhonghai have successively launched promotional activities.
In September and October, the housing enterprises participating in the promotion continued to expand, from large and medium-sized housing enterprises Xincheng Holdings (24.770, 1.06, 4.47%), Sunshine City (5.530, 0.17, 3.17%), COFCO Group, Jinke Group to China. Small-scale housing enterprises Zhuguang Group, Agile Group, etc., more and more housing companies participating in the discount.
Shen Xiaoling, an analyst at Ke Rui Rui Real Estate Research Center, said that in view of the current sales situation, this year's "Golden September and Silver 10" can be described as bleak. The performance of the 11 Golden Week was not as good as expected, and the rate of opening and closing of many projects was significantly reduced. As a traditional push-up season, there are a large number of real estate listings. It is expected that as the housing companies sprint the annual sales target, more housing companies will be added to the discount promotion activities in the fourth quarter.
According to the statistics of the agency, nearly 20 real estate companies adopted multi-distribution marketing in September-October. In addition, compared with the average of 9.5 fold in the same period last year, this year's discount has also increased to 9.3 fold. In September and October of this year, whether it is a single real estate project or the overall market, the discount will increase.
"Step into October, the property market 'Autumn' is more significant. From the current transaction data, the 'Golden September and Silver 10' transaction is weak, and the market's cooling trend is more obvious." Shen Xiaoling believes that with the regulation and control policy continues to be strict, The increase in the volume of housing enterprises and the increase in pressure will require more profit-making concessions to sprint the fourth quarter results. "According to the current discount strength, it is expected that the overall profit margin of the industry will be further opened in the fourth quarter, and the overall industry discount should remain at around 10%."
In the fourth quarter, the macroeconomic environment facing real estate regulation and control is still complicated, and market expectations are accelerating reshaping. In the fourth quarter, more emphasis will be placed on maintaining the continuity and stability of regulatory policies. The analysts of the above-mentioned Chinese Academy of Sciences believe that "the real estate control policy is not relaxed, because the city market under the city policy continues to show cyclical market, so that the shift cycle of this round market is significantly extended."
“Recently, the opening rate of new projects in hot cities is obviously lower than in the past. It is expected that the market will adjust in the differentiation in the fourth quarter.” The person further said that it is expected that the volume of new and second-hand housing in the first- and second-tier hotspots in the fourth quarter will be further loosened. The second-tier cities in the second-tier cities in the central and western cities will also take the lead in price declines. The new housing market is relatively stable, while most independent third- and fourth-tier cities have insufficient stamina for the new housing market, and the market will move from the upside to a smooth operating cycle. “The overall sales scale of the country will also face adjustment, and the price increase will further narrow. The investment in real estate development and the growth rate of new construction will fall from the high level.”