How is the A-share market at the end of the year? Six brokers voiced more
Since the beginning of the year, the market has maintained a volatile market for many times. However, with the help of many good news last weekend, A-shares finally opened up a rare surge in the past two years. Can the A-share market keep rising in the last two months of this year? How will investment risks and investment opportunities be interpreted? Recently, a number of brokerage analysts frequently voiced and pre-judged the market outlook.
There are consensus among the six brokers: The continued warmer policy in the future will help restructure the market confidence, and the market outlook is expected to continue the shock rebound pattern. Everbright Securities and Guosheng Securities each predicted that the highest point of the rebound was at 3,000 points.
In addition, Essence Securities, CITIC Jiantou (8.220, 0.16, 1.99%) Securities, Great Wall Securities, and Shanxi Securities (5.680, 0.19, 3.46%) respectively predicted the future stock market trend and investors' short-term and long-term investment directions.
A shares are expected to return to 3000 points
Everbright Securities and Guosheng Securities were most optimistic about the rebound, and predicted the highest point to 3000 points. Everbright Securities first proposed: “The bottom of the third quarter is completed, the higher the fourth quarter, the higher the end of the year, and it is expected to return to 3000 points by the end of the year.” In the investment allocation structure, it is recommended to pay attention to the bank's high-interest standard position allocation opportunities, from the big game, Complementing the layout of the short board, military, network security, 5G, chip and other science and technology stocks.
Guosheng Securities also said that from the technical analysis, the rebound pressure is still maintained at 2900-3000 points. Under the official statement of "implementing relevant policies as soon as possible", it is expected that the enthusiasm for the rebound of the broader market will continue.
Ding Luming, chief analyst of CITIC Financial Engineering, also said that the main board is facing a downward trend in the fundamental environment and short-term oversold valuation. After the technical oversold pattern is suppressed in the short term, the fundamental and technical support for the Shanghai Composite Index rebounds short-term. It will be near 2700, and will continue to fall back to around 2600.
Essence Securities believes that overall, although the A-share market may still be in the bottoming stage in the medium term, the rebound conditions are already in place, and this round of rebound persistence and space is expected to exceed market expectations, and future policies will be further implemented. G20 summit meeting, four The time of the Plenary Session is determined, and the factors such as tax cuts and fee reductions may boost the rebound.
In the investment direction, Essence Securities stated that it should proceed from the medium-term industry boom, focusing on the leading companies in the new economy (new technology, new consumption, new services) and blue-chips that are in line with the national strategic orientation and industrial upgrading direction. High-quality varieties, it is expected that this will be the main clues of this round of rebound, the industry includes 5G, computers, military, semiconductors, innovative drugs, new energy vehicles and so on.
Short-term timing or long-term investment
In the past week, the market has experienced significant fluctuations, and investors’ concerns about the stock market have increased significantly. Will this affect the follow-up trend? How to change the direction of short-term and long-term investment?
Great Wall Securities believes that the A-share market is expected to usher in a short-term rebound time window, and risk appetite repair can be expected, but the rebound space and sustainability need to be based on the continued fulfillment of important policies. The investment opportunities that can be paid attention to in the short-term oversold rebound are: First, the brokerage in the financial sector (the valuation is sloppy, the bottom of the performance cycle, the beneficial policy is released, the stamp duty can be reduced under the tax reduction cycle), and the bank (the valuation advantage is significant, Policy easing benefits). The second is to benefit from the tax new policy and the mass consumer industry that expands domestic demand, focusing on the segmented industries and individual stocks that have been replenished in the early stage and have strong certainty in performance. The third is the oversold rebound opportunity in the growth sector, and more combined with the performance valuation to select high-quality stocks from the bottom up.
In the medium term, A shares are still the bottoming pattern. The construction of the bottom needs to observe the transmission effect of the policy to the fundamentals, and pay close attention to the future economic downturn and the interpretation of overseas risks. It is recommended to maintain the market style tends to value game during the process of accelerating the internationalization of A-shares. The market outlook is in the direction of consumption upgrade and manufacturing upgrade.
Shanxi Securities believes that for the A-share market, there is a greater possibility of a structural shock in the short term. For the market as a whole, the short-term market will still be dominated by the market. Whether the medium-term market can strengthen will depend on whether the macro-policy can reverse the current market fundamentals and risk appetite. In the long run, the current market valuation is at a historical low, which is an ideal buying point for long-term value investors. But beware of the possibility of killing profits in the future.
In terms of industry configuration, Shanxi Securities recommended to continue to adhere to the main line of economic work in the second half of the year, impromptu infrastructure construction, short-term support, focusing on: Xinjiang, Tibet and other areas with poor infrastructure conditions in the west; rural infrastructure transformation under the rural revitalization strategy ( Communication facilities, water conservancy, road traffic, etc.); railway and urban rail construction, communication infrastructure construction.
Recently, a large number of A shares have fluctuated, and many brokers have successfully predicted in the early days.
Last week, Zhang Yulong, chief analyst of CITIC Securities' strategy, predicted that the market will rebound after a sharp decline. The financial and consumer sectors represented by banks, insurance, food and beverage will perform best, and this week's surge will match the forecast.