As the main stock indexes continued to rebound during the week, the total net purchases of the North Bank funds have reached a historical high of 34.6 billion yuan since the beginning of this week, and they have completely reversed the biggest net selling situation last month, and strongly staged a V-shaped reversal.
Such a large-scale reversal of funds in the north is precisely at the time of global stock market volatility adjustment. In the past “Black October”, there was a round of plunge in the global stock market.
Securities Times reporter Yan Runsheng
Stimulated by continuous positive news, on November 2, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened up sharply and the volume continued to increase. The interconnection market has become more active, with total turnover and net purchases reaching record highs. As the main stock indexes continued to rebound during the week, the total net purchases of the North Bank funds have reached a historical high of 34.6 billion yuan since the beginning of this week, and they have completely reversed the biggest net selling situation last month, and strongly staged a V-shaped reversal. Market participants told the Securities Times·e company reporter that at present, the influence of foreign capital on A-shares continues to increase, especially in some blue-chip stocks. The right to speak has become very large, and it needs to take a comprehensive view of market volatility and stock picking style. Double impact.
On November 17 this year, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect opened its fourth anniversary, and with the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Fund, on November 2nd, it stood on the mark of a cumulative net purchase of more than 600 billion yuan.
On this day, the North Capital also broke the record of the opening of the interconnection mechanism: whether it was the day's turnover of 42.8 billion, the purchase size of 30.1 billion yuan, or the net purchase of 17.4 billion yuan, breaking through the Shanghai and Hong Kong that year. It was the highest level of 12 billion yuan on the day of opening.
In fact, this week, the funds in the north have staged a strong reversal. According to Wind statistics, in October, the total net sales of funds in the north reached 10.5 billion yuan, becoming the largest single-month net sales in the year, and the third-largest net sales in a single month since the interoperability mechanism. However, at the end of the month, the funds on the north were planning a counterattack. On October 29, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 2.18%. On the same day, the North Bank funded a net purchase of 2.8 billion yuan. The net purchase of the subsequent 4 trading days exceeded the net sales for the whole month. Out of scale.
Such a large-scale reversal of funds in the north is precisely at the time of global stock market volatility adjustment. In the past “Black October”, the global stock market entered a round of plunge. US stocks have repeatedly plunged, technology stocks led the decline, the Nasdaq index once hit the biggest single-day decline since 2011, the Asia-Pacific stock market fell across the board, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell below the 25,000 mark for the first time in nearly a year and a half. A shares are also difficult to escape, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,500 points, a large number of individual stocks fell.
In this context, the interconnection market remained highly active. In October, the total transaction volume of 421.1 billion yuan became the third largest active transaction month in history. The northward funds rarely panic out of A-shares, and the sales volume of up to 215.8 billion yuan was the highest. Record. The close linkage between the A-share market and the global market has once again received market attention. According to senior fund managers of cross-border investment, foreign capital reduced the A-share allocation on a large scale last month. After the US stock market plummeted, the adjustment was related to the stock market allocation in the marginal market.
China Merchants Securities (14.000, 0.36, 2.64%) analyst Zhang Xia also pointed out in the research report that since 2014, the net outflow of funds from the north to the market exceeded 4 billion yuan, which often occurred when US stocks and A shares fell sharply. As A-shares are opened to the outside world, they will be more sensitive to changes in external markets such as US stocks. Sometimes foreign investors will also fluctuate and exchange their profits in a timely manner. On the other hand, factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the higher yield of US bonds will also increase the attractiveness of overseas capital to capital and lead to the outflow of foreign capital.
This point can be proved by the performance of the funds in the south.
In the context of the recent depreciation of the RMB and US dollar exchange rates, in September and October, the South Korean funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect ended the long-term net selling situation, with successive incremental net purchases of HK$6.5 billion and HK$9.2 billion respectively.
However, Kaiyuan Financial Strategy Analyst Liang Haorong told the Securities Times·e company reporter that from the recent trend of US stocks and A shares, the correlation between them is actually not high. Historical trends also show that investor sentiment is often more than economic reality. Fluctuations are mainly sensitive to factors such as domestic economic development, policy direction, and expectations.
Recently, the policy level has been released frequently, and the central level and local governments have introduced policies to bail out the equity of listed companies. According to statistics, from the perspective of overseas capital flows tracked by EPFR and the flow of funds to the north, overseas funds are still being allocated A shares.
Wen Tianna, non-executive chairman of Broad Financial Group, told reporters that foreign capital will value the domestic market regarding the market's proximity to the bottom, and the domestic economic development is better than the external market expectation, but there are also concerns about the US dollar interest rate hike and liquidity narrowing. Considering that the two parties' views are also continuing to play each other.
Significant increase in foreign investment
Judging from the transaction situation, the right to speak of foreign shares in A shares is gradually enlarged.
In October, although the turnover of A-shares declined overall, the activity of capital transactions in the north increased against the market. According to the statistics of Guangzheng Hangsheng, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect have increased to 11.82% and 6.53% respectively in terms of the average daily turnover of SSE and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, especially the turnover of Shanghai Stock Connect in the index has reached a record high. .
Liang Haorong said that from the recent historical data, the sales volume of funds in the north has maintained an average of more than 15 billion in October, reaching a peak in history. The average turnover of the Shanghai stock market in October was about 130 billion yuan, and the northbound capital accounted for 12% of the Shanghai stock market. From the data, it can be judged that the influence of foreign capital on the A-shares is constantly increasing. In addition, MSCI and FTSE have successively included A-shares in their indices, and then Huluntong will be on the road before the end of the year, which will bring more incremental funds to A-shares.
As of November 2, the total net purchase of A shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange has reached 604.5 billion yuan, an increase of more than 80% compared with the same period in 2017. The corresponding positions have also expanded rapidly. The main net buy channel, accounting for nearly 60%.
From the overall scale, foreign capital has become an important institutional force for the A-share market.
According to the latest statistics of the People's Bank of China, as of September, foreign institutions and individuals holding domestic RMB financial assets held 1.28 trillion yuan of stock assets, second only to bonds becoming the second largest asset allocation of foreign capital. Although the scale of stock allocation has decreased from the previous month, the overall increase of about 25% over the same period last year.
On the other hand, at the time of the continued increase in foreign investment, the main domestic institutions are shrinking the front. Wind statistics show that among the top ten shareholders of listed companies, the market value of fund positions in the third quarter of this year decreased by 742.6 billion yuan.
The overall public fund holdings fell to 1.71 trillion yuan, accounting for a decrease in the total assets of the fund.
In the same period, the size of the capital position in the north has been expanding against the trend. According to the statistics of the Securities Times·e company database, the position of holding positions in the north of the fund in the third quarter of this year was about 471 billion yuan, which increased for three consecutive quarters. The overall shareholding ratio of the shares also gradually increased. In October, the financial sector, which has invested in the trend against the north, has also performed strongly in the near future.
According to the statistics of Tianfeng Securities (6.690, 0.61, 10.03%), the proportion of foreign capital in the A-shares in the North China Fund and QFII has reached 3.25%, which is almost the same as the proportion of insurance social insurance positions, second only to the active public offering. The fund has surpassed the size of the national team's heavy positions. In other words, foreign capital may have become the second largest institutional strength of A shares.
As a veteran asset management company of Hong Kong stocks, Value Partners has launched three private equity funds this year. Yu Xiaobo, director of the company's investment director and China business, told the media that the overall stability of the Chinese economy is higher than that of most similar emerging market economies. In the international market, the current A-shares are also at a lower valuation level, and the risk-reward ratio is already at a higher level. Compared with other similar large-scale assets in China, the price/performance ratio is also quite attractive. Considering China's economic volume and the gradual opening of the capital market, the increase in the proportion of China's asset allocation will be a major trend.
According to statistics, the number of public funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect continued to grow in the second half of the year, and has now reached 67 with a total scale of 18.655 billion yuan.
Last year, the North Bank raised a large net purchase, and under the background of continued foreign investment, the discussion on whether A shares were in Hong Kong stock market was very prosperous. As for whether foreign capital will become the main force driving A-shares, there are differences in the market. Some fund managers believe that A-shares are still at a low level in global asset allocation. With the continuous opening of capital and the relatively limited domestic public fundraising, it is likely that there will be offshore market characteristics similar to Hong Kong stocks.
Liang Haorong said that whether foreign capital will become the largest asset allocation party for A-shares cannot be generalized for the time being. Based on the experience of Japan and South Korea, it can be expected that the proportion of foreign capital in the total market capitalization of A shares will be about 10%. The future development of A shares relies on endogenous promotion, while foreign investment can only play a catalytic role. Whether the follow-up foreign investment will increase the allocation, or whether the Chinese official will continue to increase investment in the future, create a bullish investment environment, and increase the willingness of foreign investors to expand the layout of A shares.
Wen Tianna also said that the impact of foreign capital on A shares is continuous. Compared with the Hong Kong stock market, A shares are not fully open, and foreign capital will become an important force, but it will not be a decisive force.
However, it is worth noting that foreign capital represented by funds from the north is leading an A-share liquidity stratification from another dimension.
According to the statistics of Securities Times·e Company, despite the sharp fluctuations in the market this year, the size of the capital position in the north has increased quarter by quarter, and the overall average shareholding ratio has also increased, from 0.46% at the end of the first quarter to 0.67% at the end of the third quarter. The tendency has not reversed. In terms of the three major stocks in the north of the previous quarter, although the chain has declined, it has always taken over more than 70% of the foreign capital allocation in the quarter, Kweichow Moutai (599.900, 36.90, 6.55%) and Hengrui Medicine (67.600). , 5.10, 8.16%), China Ping An (67.350, 3.05, 4.74%) and other blue-chip stocks continue to occupy the top foreign-invested active stocks.
Take the Maotai, a leading liquor reversal in the near future, as an example. Northward funds are deeply involved in the recent rebound.
According to statistics, in October, Kweichow Moutai fell by about 28%, and the total amount of funds in the north was 5.2 billion yuan, a record high. During the period, when Guizhou Moutai disclosed that the growth rate of the three quarterly reports slowed down, it encountered a rare down limit on October 29, and the funds on the north immediately stopped the previous net sales, changed hands to buy net, and net purchases of 1.273 billion yuan on October 31. The maximum size of the single day was refreshed during the year, and the total transaction volume of Kweichow Moutai was 45%. The average daily turnover of the funds in the north of the company exceeded 40%, and the net purchase amount reached a new high. In comparison, at the beginning of this year, Beishang Capital participated in the daily scale of Guizhou Maotai about 20%.
From the perspective of market performance, the performance of Guizhou Maotai is also evident. The stock continued to rise from October 31. As of the close of November 2, the company's share price closed up 6.55% to close at 599.9 yuan / share.
Similar operations have taken place in China's peace. As an active stock, Beishang Capital intervened in Ping An’s average daily turnover, from about 11% at the beginning of this year to the latest 24%.
Liang Haorong said that on the whole, the investment style of foreign capital tends to be stable, and the allocation in the A-share market is mainly long-term funds. However, the long-term impact on A shares is like a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it plays a positive role in promoting and promoting. On the other hand, if foreign capital is interfered by international political and economic factors, it will quickly withdraw. Pushing the waves. It is necessary to open up to foreign investors and be vigilant at all times, so endogenous growth is the key to the future development of the A-share market.
How to introduce high-quality foreign investors has also become an important consideration for the subsequent opening of A shares.
Wen Tianna said that foreign investment in the concept of value investment brought to China, and constantly explore high-quality targets, but with the changes in the global market, foreign investment in the deployment of long-term investment may be weakened, coupled with the impact of hedge funds, may have a negative value discovery function Impact, this has an adverse effect on A shares. When A-shares are gradually opened up, how to introduce advanced foreign investors with investment strength will become an important consideration.